Ilyce, you know I love you, but the labor picture defies all the logic about "what a recession is," at least by traditional definition. Yes, Jerome Powell is trying everything to push us into a recession, but you know where's he going to push us first(?) - into Democratic control of Congress, at least one house or or the other. Republican control of both would've been depressing, although we'll see what happens. I'm feeling better about the economy and I'm on pretty much a fixed income now in my old age. I would not have said that in June or July. Love your newsletter and insights. Always.
Thanks, Howard, for your comments. The labor picture is indeed strong, which is why I think a formal recession hasn't been called. It remains to be seen how far Powell has to go, but if you look at the conflicting forces - largest ground war in Europe since WWII, Europe possibly without Russian fuel this winter, and China's continuing Covid shutdowns, it makes for a tough chessboard. Anyway, we'll see how it plays out. In the meantime, enjoy the last few days of the summer.
Thanks for the posts. I look forward to these readings.
Tony, I'm so glad you're enjoying them.
Ilyce, you know I love you, but the labor picture defies all the logic about "what a recession is," at least by traditional definition. Yes, Jerome Powell is trying everything to push us into a recession, but you know where's he going to push us first(?) - into Democratic control of Congress, at least one house or or the other. Republican control of both would've been depressing, although we'll see what happens. I'm feeling better about the economy and I'm on pretty much a fixed income now in my old age. I would not have said that in June or July. Love your newsletter and insights. Always.
Thanks, Howard, for your comments. The labor picture is indeed strong, which is why I think a formal recession hasn't been called. It remains to be seen how far Powell has to go, but if you look at the conflicting forces - largest ground war in Europe since WWII, Europe possibly without Russian fuel this winter, and China's continuing Covid shutdowns, it makes for a tough chessboard. Anyway, we'll see how it plays out. In the meantime, enjoy the last few days of the summer.
Thanks, Ilyce. I still have a student or two who remember the value of interning for you. That puts you in a special place for me, always.